Blackjack Strategy and Odds

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Blackjack Strategy and Odds

As stated elsewhere on this website, blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in the world, both online and offline and perhaps the principal reason for this is that there’s a clear and unambiguous strategy and the chances come just about as near as you possibly can favoring the participant.

Blackjack has among the lowest house edges round, the house advantage effectively being the casino’s advantage over the player. Utilizing the most liberal principles found (rarely available but catch them if you happen to see them!), the house edge is only 0.28%, even though it’s more typical to locate a house edge of about 0.5% and less than 1%. It follows that, with only a little luck, the participant has a good chance of earning a profit, or, more likely, assuming “average” luck, they could play for an elongated time period and just lose very little.

Blackjack Basic Strategy

Basic Strategy (BS) is the title given to the mathematically proven best means of playing blackjack and it tells you just what to do in any given situation to guarantee you have the best yield in the long run. Applying this strategy is perfectly legal — indeed many land-based casinos provide BS cards in the table. It’s very simple, whether playing online or in a real-world casino to consult with the BS graph and understand precisely whether you need to hit, stand, split, double or anything else.

Even understanding that BS provides the most likely way of reward some players can’t bring themselves to stick to the guidelines, preferring instead to use their instinct or an alternate strategy. If you’re playing without much idea of winning this is fine, but for anyone who’s serious about making money — or at least making their stay at the blackjack table as long as possible — using Basic Strategy is vital.

Different rule variants, including such matters as the odds where blackjack is paid, the number of decks of cards used and principles regarding splitting, doubling and dealer-hitting have an effect on the house advantage and, of course, on the precise details of BS. However, generally speaking, these rules are the most basic principles that any participant should know of (although in truth memorizing BS is unnecessary if it is simple enough to refer to a printed or online guide). Together with the fundamentals of using Basic Strategy, we have also included the easiest ways to guarantee you’re playing in a table with the cheapest potential house advantage (and thus the maximum chance of walking away in profit) — these are listed first.

  • The fewer the decks, the better things are for the participant, all other variables being equal.
  • Never play in a desk where hitting blackjack pays at less than 3/2. Paying at 6/5 or even cash isn’t unusual and radically increases the house edge (and hence eats into your potential profits).
  • Doubling down on any number is a big plus for the participant, instead of only on 9, 10 and 11 or even only 10 and 11 as is common in Europe.
  • When the dealer must hit on soft 17 the participant gains around 0.2% in the home edge stakes rather than games in which the dealer stands on a soft 17.
  • The easiest element of BS to keep in mind is to always hit (or twice where applicable) until you reach 17 or longer if the dealer is showing a seven or higher. You may not need to hit on 16 but the maths says you need to, so man up and accept that card!
  • The next easiest tenet is to keep on any hard (not including a professional ) rating of 13 upwards if the dealer has less than a seven.
  • Always double down on 10 or 11 unless the trader has 10 or an ace.
  • Hit a gentle 13-17 inclusive against ANY dealer card.
  • Never (EVER) take insurance.

The above are just the easiest to remember guidelines, covering fundamental points only, and use to matches using four to eight decks where the dealer will stand on a soft 17 and the participant can double down on 9, 10 or 11.

Alternatives to Basic Strategy

As said, there’s absolutely not any reason at all to not use BS — unless you have an aversion to cash. But, there is a range of alternative strategies that players have a propensity to utilize and here we have a look at the most common ones and describe the effect they have on the house advantage and, naturally, your gains.

Copy the Trader

People assume that since the trader, the casino, wins, by hitting 17, that should they copy that strategy they’ll have a fantastic likelihood of success. This, sadly, is completely untrue and the trader’s benefit derives not from this but from the fact that the player goes first, thus frequently breaking before the trader even plays their hand. By copying the trader, that is to say standing on 17 and over (such as soft 17), hitting on 16 and under and never splitting or doubling down, the house edge rises to just under 5.5% This is obviously not one to follow!

Never Bust

Having said that the trader often wins because the participant reaches 22 or over, it might appear a logical strategy to prevent busting and place the onus on the dealer. But by never hitting 12 or over (unless it was a soft hand including an ace) but otherwise after BS, the casino’s advantage increases to nearly 4%. Not catastrophic but certain to reduce your stay in the table and your chances of walking away with some money in your pocket.

Perform the Dealer Assuming a 10

Given only four of the 14 available card values are in fact 10-value (10s, jacks, queens and kings), this might seem a strange choice — yet it is one that some players think is a fantastic strategy. Playing this way under a revised BS gives the bad guys — that is the casino by the way — an edge of over 10%!

Card Stud Along with other Blackjack Strategies

Card counting is legal and may, theoretically, enable the player to acquire advantage of about 2% over the home. By keeping track of the number of high-value cards left in the pack the participant can determine when is a fantastic time to increase their stake and when it’s sensible to play for a minimum bet. Essentially, high trades increase the chance that the dealer will bust and consequently when the participant has memorized what’s gone before they have the ability to beat the dealer consistently. Blackjack is the only casino game where what has gone before affects future gambling, essentially the trick to card counting.

Casinos have numerous strategies to fight this, however, and card counting is significantly more difficult to gain from than it was in the golden days of the renowned MIT group of the 1980s and 1990s. By using multiple decks, continuous shuffling machines and enhanced observation technology, in addition to electronic blackjack, the card counters are very much on the back foot. Oh well, it was good whilst it lasted!

Another technique used by the MIT team and other blackjack benefit players is shuffle tracking. This involves watching and observing a clump of cards as they pass through the playing and shoe in a time once the purchase price of the cards is advantageous. It’s hugely difficult and requires immense ability, as do other tactics like cutting to an ace and identifying hidden cards (the latter through tiny wear marks, folds or cuts).

All in all these techniques aren’t something lots of people should think about but — I will say it again — choosing the ideal principles and sticking to basic plan should be musts. Should you throw in the odd free beer or dinner at a real casino and promotions and loyalty points online that low house advantage becomes even lower, which makes it easy to see why blackjack is so adored by casino fans.

By | 2019-12-04T13:47:43+00:00 August 24th, 2019|Blackjack, Strategy & Odds|0 Comments

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